Climate adaptation by crop migration.

Many studies have estimated the adverse effects of climate change on crop yields, however, this literature almost universally assumes a constant geographic distribution of crops in the future. Movement of growing areas to limit exposure to adverse climate conditions has been discussed as a theoretical adaptive response but has not previously been quantified or demonstrated at a global scale. Here, we assess how changes in rainfed crop area have already mediated growing season temperature trends for rainfed maize, wheat, rice, and soybean using spatially-explicit climate and crop area data from 1973 to 2012. Our results suggest that the most damaging impacts of warming on rainfed maize, wheat, and rice have been substantially moderated by the migration of these crops over time and the expansion of irrigation. However, continued migration may incur substantial environmental costs and will depend on socio-economic and political factors in addition to land suitability and climate.

Rice yield estimation based on forecasting the future condition of groundwater salinity in the Caspian coastal strip of Guilan Province, Iran.

Irrigation water salinity is one of the factors that reduces agricultural production. Guilan Province is one of the most important rice-producing areas in Iran where groundwater is used for irrigation. The temporal and spatial variations of groundwater salinity were studied in the coastal strip covering 4285 km2 of the province using data from 73 wells, as well as its estimated effect on the rice yield. Data on mean electrical conductivity (EC) for each 6-month period of 12 consecutive years, from the second half of 2002 until the end of 2014, were analyzed and resulted in 25 mean ECs. EC maps and maps of the probability of higher salinity areas were obtained by using ordinary kriging (OK) and indicator kriging (IK) in ArcGIS 9.3 software, respectively. Thereby, areas belonging to different salinity classes were outlined and places with higher salinity reducing the rice yield were identified. In addition, the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope were used to project future changes. The results indicated that due to the salinity of groundwater in the coastal strip area, the minimum and the maximum rice yields were 80% and 100%, respectively. Using the IK method, higher probability of groundwater salinity reducing the yield was found from the central parts toward the east. The Mann-Kendal test result showed significant temporal trends of the size of areas below the 100% yield (EC < 1 dS/m) and 90-100% yield (1 < EC < 1.34 dS/m) thresholds. The equations given by Sen's slope estimator indicated that the groundwater salinity will not be a limiting factor for achieving 100% rice yields from the year of 2021 onward in all of the Guilan coastal area. The trend of increasing precipitation in the area may be an important cause.

Climate change has likely already affected global food production.

Crop yields are projected to decrease under future climate conditions, and recent research suggests that yields have already been impacted. However, current impacts on a diversity of crops subnationally and implications for food security remains unclear. Here, we constructed linear regression relationships using weather and reported crop data to assess the potential impact of observed climate change on the yields of the top ten global crops-barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat at ~20,000 political units. We find that the impact of global climate change on yields of different crops from climate trends ranged from -13.4% (oil palm) to 3.5% (soybean). Our results show that impacts are mostly negative in Europe, Southern Africa and Australia but generally positive in Latin America. Impacts in Asia and Northern and Central America are mixed. This has likely led to ~1% average reduction (-3.5 X 1013 kcal/year) in consumable food calories in these ten crops. In nearly half of food insecure countries, estimated caloric availability decreased. Our results suggest that climate change has already affected global food production.

Remote Control of Greenhouse Vegetable Production with Artificial Intelligence-Greenhouse Climate, Irrigation, and Crop Production.

The global population is increasing rapidly, together with the demand for healthy fresh food. The greenhouse industry can play an important role, but encounters difficulties finding skilled staff to manage crop production. Artificial intelligence (AI) has reached breakthroughs in several areas, however, not yet in horticulture. An international competition on "autonomous greenhouses" aimed to combine horticultural expertise with AI to make breakthroughs in fresh food production with fewer resources. Five international teams, consisting of scientists, professionals, and students with different backgrounds in horticulture and AI, participated in a greenhouse growing experiment. Each team had a 96 m2 modern greenhouse compartment to grow a cucumber crop remotely during a 4-month-period. Each compartment was equipped with standard actuators (heating, ventilation, screening, lighting, fogging, CO2 supply, water and nutrient supply). Control setpoints were remotely determined by teams using their own AI algorithms. Actuators were operated by a process computer. Different sensors continuously collected measurements. Setpoints and measurements were exchanged via a digital interface. Achievements in AI-controlled compartments were compared with a manually operated reference. Detailed results on cucumber yield, resource use, and net profit obtained by teams are explained in this paper. We can conclude that in general AI performed well in controlling a greenhouse. One team outperformed the manually-grown reference.

U.S. farmers' opinions on the use of nontraditional water sources for agricultural activities.

Water is a key resource for agricultural production in the United States. Due to projected changes in water availability across the country, long-term sustainability of agricultural production may rely on finding alternatives to traditional water sources. The aim of this study was to assess farmers' opinions on the use of nontraditional water sources (e.g., agricultural runoff, treated wastewater, recycled water, produced water, untreated surface water, and brackish surface and groundwater) for agricultural activities. A survey was distributed to farmers (n = 746) in the Mid-Atlantic and Southwest regions of the United States (U.S.) about water availability and nontraditional irrigation water perceptions. Chi-square, Fisher's exact tests, f-tests, and multinomial and ordinal logistic regression analyses were conducted. Of farmers surveyed, 80% (431/543) considered the use of nontraditional water sources to be at least moderately important and 61% (444/727) would use nontraditional water if given the option. Each of the following factors individually increased the likelihood that a farmer considered nontraditional water very important for agriculture: Farmers who lived in the Southwest region compared to the Mid-Atlantic, farmers who were concerned about water availability compared with those who were not, farmers with a graduate or professional degree compared to those with less education, farmers with access to nontraditional water, and farmers with some knowledge of nontraditional water compared to those with no reported knowledge. Concern about water availability and knowledge of nontraditional water sources were significantly associated with willingness to use these water sources (p < 0.001 for both). Water quality, food safety and health risks were the main concerns regarding nontraditional water use across both regions. Willingness to use nontraditional water increased significantly if the water quality was proven to be as good or better than farmers' current water sources (63% vs. 84%; p < 0.001). Projects focused on nontraditional water use in agriculture should be regionally tailored as our data found significant differences between farmers in two distinct U.S. regions.

Irrigated areas grow faster than the population.

Unfolding regularities between population and irrigated agriculture might increase our capacity to predict their coevolution and better ensure food security and environmental welfare. Here I use three different data sets with detailed information at the national level for ~70% of the countries of Africa, Asia, the Americas, and Europe between 1950 and 2017 to show that irrigated areas might grow disproportionally for a given increase in population, e.g., with ß > 1. The results are robust across continents, time series, population cut-offs, and variations in the area accounted for irrigation by official institutions and independent scholars. This systematic pattern suggests the existence of an underlying law driving the growth rate of irrigated areas that transcends local particularities and can be well approximated by a power function of population, specially in the case of the Americas, Asia, and Europe. Nonlinearities derived from the open-ended growth rate of irrigated areas should be taken into consideration when designing irrigation policies in order to avoid unexpected environmental costs.

Climate-Driven Crop Yield and Yield Variability and Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. Great Plains Agricultural Production.

Climate variability and trends affect global crop yields and are characterized as highly dependent on location, crop type, and irrigation. U.S. Great Plains, due to its significance in national food production, evident climate variability, and extensive irrigation is an ideal region of investigation for climate impacts on food production. This paper evaluates climate impacts on maize, sorghum, and soybean yields and effect of irrigation for individual counties in this region by employing extensive crop yield and climate datasets from 1968-2013. Variability in crop yields was a quarter of the regional average yields, with a quarter of this variability explained by climate variability, and temperature and precipitation explained these in singularity or combination at different locations. Observed temperature trend was beneficial for maize yields, but detrimental for sorghum and soybean yields, whereas observed precipitation trend was beneficial for all three crops. Irrigated yields demonstrated increased robustness and an effective mitigation strategy against climate impacts than their non-irrigated counterparts by a considerable fraction. The information, data, and maps provided can serve as an assessment guide for planners, managers, and policy- and decision makers to prioritize agricultural resilience efforts and resource allocation or re-allocation in the regions that exhibit risk from climate variability.

Organic fertilizer application increases the soil respiration and net ecosystem carbon dioxide absorption of paddy fields under water-saving irrigation.

Quantifying carbon sequestration in paddy soil is necessary to understand the effect of agricultural practices on carbon cycles. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of organic fertilizer addition (MF) on the soil respiration and net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) absorption of paddy fields under water-saving irrigation (CI) in the Taihu Lake Region of China during the 2014 and 2015 rice-growing seasons. Compared with the traditional fertilizer and water management (FC), the joint regulation of CI and MF (CM) significantly increased the rice yields and irrigation water use efficiencies of paddy fields by 4.02~5.08 and 83.54~109.97% (p < 0.05). The effects of organic fertilizer addition on soil respiration and net ecosystem CO2 absorption rates showed inter-annual differences. CM paddy fields showed a higher soil respiration and net CO2 absorption rates during some periods of the rice growth stage in the first year and during most periods of the rice growth stage in the second year. These fields also had significantly higher total CO2 emission through soil respiration (total Rsoil) and total net CO2 absorption compared with FC paddy fields (p < 0.05). The total Rsoil and net ecosystem CO2 absorption of CM paddy fields were 67.39~91.55 and 129.41~113.75 mol m-2, which were 27.66~135.52 and 12.96~31.66% higher than those of FC paddy fields. The interaction between water and fertilizer management had significant effects on total net ecosystem CO2 absorption. The frequent alternate wet-dry cycles of CI paddy fields increased the soil respiration and reduced the net CO2 absorption. Organic fertilizer promoted the soil respiration of paddy soil but also increased its net CO2 absorption and organic carbon content. Therefore, the joint regulation of water-saving irrigation and organic fertilizer is an effective measure for maintaining yield, increasing irrigation water use efficiency, mitigating CO2 emission, and promoting paddy soil fertility.

Sustainable intensification of agriculture for human prosperity and global sustainability.

There is an ongoing debate on what constitutes sustainable intensification of agriculture (SIA). In this paper, we propose that a paradigm for sustainable intensification can be defined and translated into an operational framework for agricultural development. We argue that this paradigm must now be defined-at all scales-in the context of rapidly rising global environmental changes in the Anthropocene, while focusing on eradicating poverty and hunger and contributing to human wellbeing. The criteria and approach we propose, for a paradigm shift towards sustainable intensification of agriculture, integrates the dual and interdependent goals of using sustainable practices to meet rising human needs while contributing to resilience and sustainability of landscapes, the biosphere, and the Earth system. Both of these, in turn, are required to sustain the future viability of agriculture. This paradigm shift aims at repositioning world agriculture from its current role as the world's single largest driver of global environmental change, to becoming a key contributor of a global transition to a sustainable world within a safe operating space on Earth.

Classifying Residents who use Landscape Irrigation: Implications for Encouraging Water Conservation Behavior.

Large amounts of water applied as urban irrigation can often be reduced substantially without compromising esthetics. Thus, encouraging the adoption of water-saving technologies and practices is critical to preserving water resources, yet difficult to achieve. The research problem addressed in this study is the lack of characterization of residents who use urban irrigation, which hinders the design of effective behavior change programs. This study examined audience segmentation as an approach to encouraging change using current residential landscape practices. K-means cluster analysis identified three meaningful subgroups among residential landscape irrigation users (N = 1,063): the water considerate majority (n = 479, 45 %), water savvy conservationists (n = 378, 36 %), and unconcerned water users (n = 201, 19 %). An important finding was that normative beliefs, attitudes, and perceived behavioral control characteristics of the subgroups were significantly different with large and medium practical effect sizes. Future water conservation behaviors and perceived importance of water resources were also significantly different among subgroups. The water considerate majority demonstrated capacity to conserve, placed high value on water, and were likely to engage in behavior changes. This article contributes to the literature on individuals who use residential landscape irrigation, an important target audience with potential to conserve water through sustainable irrigation practices and technologies. Findings confirm applicability of the capacity to conserve water to audience segmentation and extend this concept by incorporating perceived value of water resources and likelihood of conservation. The results suggest practical application to promoting residential landscape water conservation behaviors based on important audience characteristics.

Balancing water resource conservation and food security in China.

China's economic growth is expected to continue into the next decades, accompanied by sustained urbanization and industrialization. The associated increase in demand for land, water resources, and rich foods will deepen the challenge of sustainably feeding the population and balancing agricultural and environmental policies. We combine a hydrologic model with an economic model to project China's future food trade patterns and embedded water resources by 2030 and to analyze the effects of targeted irrigation reductions on this system, notably on national agricultural water consumption and food self-sufficiency. We simulate interprovincial and international food trade with a general equilibrium welfare model and a linear programming optimization, and we obtain province-level estimates of commodities' virtual water content with a hydrologic model. We find that reducing irrigated land in regions highly dependent on scarce river flow and nonrenewable groundwater resources, such as Inner Mongolia and the greater Beijing area, can improve the efficiency of agriculture and trade regarding water resources. It can also avoid significant consumption of irrigation water across China (up to 14.8 km(3)/y, reduction by 14%), while incurring relatively small decreases in national food self-sufficiency (e.g., by 3% for wheat). Other researchers found that a national, rather than local, water policy would have similar effects on food production but would only reduce irrigation water consumption by 5%.

Chinese rice production area adaptations to climate changes, 1949-2010.

Climate change has great impact on cropping system. Understanding how the rice production system has historically responded to external forces, both natural and anthropogenic, will provide critical insights into how the system is likely to respond in the future. The observed historic rice movement provides insights into the capability of the rice production system to adapt to climate changes. Using province-level rice production data and historic climate records, here we show that the centroid of Chinese rice production shifted northeastward over 370 km (2.98°N in latitude and 1.88°E in longitude) from 1949 to 2010. Using a linear regression model, we examined the driving factors, in particular climate, behind such rice production movement. While the major driving forces of the rice relocation are such social economic factors as urbanization, irrigation investment, and agricultural or land use policy changes, climate plays a significant role as well. We found that temperature has been a significant and coherent influence on moving the rice center in China and precipitation has had a significant but less spatially coherent influence.

Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the High Plains Aquifer of Kansas, projections to 2110.

Groundwater provides a reliable tap to sustain agricultural production, yet persistent aquifer depletion threatens future sustainability. The High Plains Aquifer supplies 30% of the nation's irrigated groundwater, and the Kansas portion supports the congressional district with the highest market value for agriculture in the nation. We project groundwater declines to assess when the study area might run out of water, and comprehensively forecast the impacts of reduced pumping on corn and cattle production. So far, 30% of the groundwater has been pumped and another 39% will be depleted over the next 50 y given existing trends. Recharge supplies 15% of current pumping and would take an average of 500-1,300 y to completely refill a depleted aquifer. Significant declines in the region's pumping rates will occur over the next 15-20 y given current trends, yet irrigated agricultural production might increase through 2040 because of projected increases in water use efficiencies in corn production. Water use reductions of 20% today would cut agricultural production to the levels of 15-20 y ago, the time of peak agricultural production would extend to the 2070s, and production beyond 2070 would significantly exceed that projected without reduced pumping. Scenarios evaluate incremental reductions of current pumping by 20-80%, the latter rate approaching natural recharge. Findings substantiate that saving more water today would result in increased net production due to projected future increases in crop water use efficiencies. Society has an opportunity now to make changes with tremendous implications for future sustainability and livability.

Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: a hydro-economic modeling approach.

Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD's goal of restoring the 'good ecological status' of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute to balance competing water demands in the basin and to increase economic water productivity, but might not be sufficient to ensure the provision of environmental flows as required by the WFD. A thoroughly revision of the basin's water use concession system for irrigation seems to be needed in order to bring the GRBMP in line with the WFD objectives. Furthermore, the study illustrates that social, economic, institutional, and technological factors, in addition to bio-physical conditions, are important issues to be considered for designing and developing water management strategies. The research initiative presented in this paper demonstrates that hydro-economic models can explicitly integrate all these issues, constituting a valuable tool that could assist policy makers for implementing sustainable irrigation policies.

Projecting water withdrawal and supply for future decades in the U.S. under climate change scenarios.

The sustainability of water resources in future decades is likely to be affected by increases in water demand due to population growth, increases in power generation, and climate change. This study presents water withdrawal projections in the United States (U.S.) in 2050 as a result of projected population increases and power generation at the county level as well as the availability of local renewable water supplies. The growth scenario assumes the per capita water use rate for municipal withdrawals to remain at 2005 levels and the water use rates for new thermoelectric plants at levels in modern closed-loop cooling systems. In projecting renewable water supply in future years, median projected monthly precipitation and temperature by sixteen climate models were used to derive available precipitation in 2050 (averaged over 2040-2059). Withdrawals and available precipitation were compared to identify regions that use a large fraction of their renewable local water supply. A water supply sustainability risk index that takes into account additional attributes such as susceptibility to drought, growth in water withdrawal, increased need for storage, and groundwater use was developed to evaluate areas at greater risk. Based on the ranking by the index, high risk areas can be assessed in more mechanistic detail in future work.

Projected water consumption in future global agriculture: scenarios and related impacts.

Global stress on water and land resources is increasing as a consequence of population growth and higher caloric food demand. Many terrestrial ecosystems have already massively been degraded for providing agricultural land, and water scarcity related to irrigation has damaged water dependent ecosystems. Coping with the food and biomass demand of an increased population, while minimizing the impacts of crop production, is therefore a massive upcoming challenge. In this context, we developed four strategies to deliver the biotic output for feeding mankind in 2050. Expansion on suitable and intensification of existing areas are compared to assess associated environmental impacts, including irrigation demand, water stress under climate change, and the productivity of the occupied land. Based on the agricultural production pattern and impacts of the strategies we identified the trade-offs between land and water use. Intensification in regions currently under deficit irrigation can increase agricultural output by up to 30%. However, intensified crop production causes enormous water stress in many locations and might not be a viable solution. Furthermore, intensification alone will not be able to meet future food demand: additionally, a reduction of waste by 50% along the food supply chain or expansion of agricultural land is required for satisfying current per-capita meat and bioenergy consumption. Suitable areas for such expansion are mainly located in Africa, followed by South America. The increased land stress is of smaller concern than the water stress modeled for the intensification case. Therefore, a combination of waste reduction with expansion on suitable pastures generally results as the best option, along with some intensification on selected areas. Our results suggested that minimizing environmental impacts requires fundamental changes in agricultural systems and international cooperation, by producing crops where it is most environmentally efficient and not where it is closest to demand or cheapest.